Benjamin Booker
By Benjamin Booker 13th April 2026
X: @StatManBenB
Premier League relegation odds have been turned upside down following a massive weekend of football. West Ham United’s commanding 4–0 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers on Friday night didn’t just earn three points; it completely shifted the survival race. With Nottingham Forest dropping points and a Tottenham loss to Sunderland, the Hammers are finally finding daylight at the bottom of the table.
Opta gives West Ham 61.8% chance of survival after our 4-0 win Friday night
West Ham Move Clear While Nottingham Forest Stumble
The clinical nature of the Wolves win suggests that Nuno’s side has found its rhythm at exactly the right time. While we took care of business, our rivals faltered. Nottingham Forest could only manage a draw, meaning they failed to pull away from the scrap.
According to the latest Opta Analyst data, West Ham’s statistical probability of survival has skyrocketed.
The Shocking Collapse of Tottenham Hotspur
The headline story of the weekend, however, remains the North London implosion. Tottenham lost to Sunderland 1–0, a result that officially plunged them into the bottom three. Statistically, Spurs are a club in crisis:
- They are 18th in the Premier League, firmly in the relegation zone.
- They are the only team in the top flight without a win in the year 2026.
- Over their last five games, they have picked up a league-low 1 point (LLLDL).
Watching a “Big Six” club struggle this significantly is unprecedented, but the numbers don’t lie—Tottenham are currently playing like and look like a Championship side.
Opta Supercomputer: Survival Probabilities Updated
The Opta Supercomputer calculations for Premier League relegation odds now paint a much prettier picture for West Ham. Before the Wolves game, the computer gave us a nearly 70% chance of going down. Following the weekend results, those odds have flipped, with Tottenham now carrying a higher statistical risk of the drop.
| Club | Current Position | Form (Last 5) | Relegation Risk |
| West Ham | 17th | WLDLW | 38.2% |
| Tottenham | 18th | LLLDL | 44.8% |
| Nottm Forest | 16th | DLDDL | 26.5% |
The Road Ahead
We aren’t out of the woods yet, but for the first time this season, the momentum is in East London. For more West Ham news and analysis, stay tuned to our matchday blogs. If we keep this intensity up, we’ll be safe long before the final day.
COYI!
Comments