Benjamin Booker
Heavy Lies The Crown: Jarrod Bowen comparison.
By Benjamin Booker
When Jarrod Bowen inherited the captain’s armband in August 2024, it was viewed as a coronation for West Ham’s new king. Eighteen months later, that armband feels less like a badge of honor and more like a shackle.
As we look at the table in December 2025, staring down the barrel of a relegation battle, the raw numbers paint a bleak picture: goals are drying up, chances are scarce, and the electric output that defined his rise has seemingly dimmed. To the casual observer, the conclusion is simple—the pressure has got to him.
But to look at a spreadsheet and conclude that Bowen has declined is to misunderstand the tragedy unfolding at the London Stadium. In a season defined by managerial chaos and tactical dysfunction, Bowen hasn’t lost his ability; he has lost his support system. This isn’t the story of a player wilting under the weight of the crown; it is the story of a captain trying to hold up a collapsing roof with his bare hands.
| Season | Role | Matches | Goals | Assists | G/A Per Game |
| 23/24 | Key Player | 34 | 16 | 6 | 0.65 |
| 24/25 | Captain | 34 | 13 | 10 | 0.68 |
| 25/26 | Captain | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 |
Figure 1: The Captaincy Curse? While Bowen’s goal involvements actually rose during his first year with the armband (0.68 per game), the current 2025/26 campaign marks a sharp decline. Note the contrast between his prolific 2023/24 form and the current drought, where he is contributing just one goal or assist every three games.
“This isn’t the story of a player wilting under the weight of the crown; it is the story of a captain trying to hold up a collapsing roof with his bare hands.”
A King Without A Court: The Data Behind The Drop:
At first glance, the scorecard is damning. In his final season before taking the armband, Jarrod Bowen was a goal-scoring machine, netting 16 times in the Premier League. Today, deep into the winter of 2025, he sits on just three goals.
Critics point to this drop-off as evidence of a captain struggling to lead. However, a forensic look at the underlying data reveals the opposite: Bowen isn’t missing chances—he is being starved of them.
The “Starvation” Metric
The most telling statistic is Expected Goals (xG) per 90 minutes. This metric measures the quality of service a striker receives. The drop-off here is catastrophic and points directly to a breakdown in West Ham’s creative machinery.
| Metric (per 90) | Peak Bowen (23/24) | Current Bowen | % Change |
| Xg/90 | 0.35 | 0.13 | -63% |
| Touches in Opp Box | 5.5 | 4.1 | -25% |
| Shots on Target | 1.2 | 0.8 | -33% |
| Shot Conversion | 18% | 23% | +5% |
Figure 2: Efficiency in Isolation. This data debunks the myth that Bowen is finishing poorly. His conversion rate has actually improved (+5%) compared to his peak season. The real issue is the catastrophic drop in Expected Goals (xG), confirming that the quality of chances he receives has fallen by more than 60%.
The data shows that Bowen is effectively receiving chances that are three times worse in quality than he was two years ago. In fact, he is statistically over-performing. Based on the quality of chances provided to him this season, the average Premier League forward would have scored just one goal. Bowen has scraped together three, proving his finishing remains as sharp as ever.
“The problem isn’t that Bowen has stopped firing; it’s that West Ham have stopped loading the gun.”
Isolated on the Wing
The “eye test” suggests Bowen is often stranded, waving for the ball near the halfway line while the rest of the team sits deep. The numbers back this up.
Since the managerial upheaval began, Bowen’s touches in the opposition box have dropped by 25%. Instead of receiving the ball in the “danger zone” (the six-yard box), he is being forced to collect possession 40 yards from goal and drive forward alone.
He is taking roughly the same number of shots per game (2.3), but the location of those shots has shifted drastically. Two years ago, he was finishing cut-backs from six yards out. Today, he is forced into low-probability efforts from outside the area or tight angles because the support play simply isn’t arriving.
The conclusion is stark: The King hasn’t lost his touch. The court has simply stopped serving him.
The Managerial Chaos: A Victim of Whiplash
To understand why the service has stopped, you only have to look at the technical area. In the space of 12 months, Jarrod Bowen has played under three different managers with three diametrically opposed philosophies. For any player, let alone a captain carrying the creative burden, this level of instability is suffocating.
| Manager | Period | Tactical Style | Bowens Role | Avg Goals per Month |
| Moyes | 23/24 | Counter Attack | RW (Inside Forward) | 0.47 |
| Lopetegui | 24/25 | Balanced/Tech | Creative Playmaker | 0.38 |
| Potter | Early 25 | Possession | Central Striker | 0.25 |
| Nuno | Late 25 | Deep Block | Isolated Outlet | 0.23 |
Figure 3: Tactical Whiplash. A clear correlation exists between dugout instability and Bowen’s output. As West Ham shifted from Moyes’ counter-attacking stability to Nuno’s deep-block conservatism, Bowen’s goal threat was effectively halved, dropping from nearly a goal every other game to just 0.23 per month.
1. The Lopetegui Transition (Late 2024) The 2024/25 season began under Julen Lopetegui with a clear—if rigid—structure. Bowen was trusted as a creative hub, drifting inside to act as a secondary playmaker. It worked; he hit double figures for assists. But when results soured and Lopetegui was dismissed in January, the continuity vanished.
2. The Potter Experiment (Jan 2025 – Sept 2025) Enter Graham Potter. The former Chelsea boss attempted to implement a possession-heavy “Potterball” system that required patience and intricate build-up. For a few months, Bowen was repurposed as a central striker in a 3-5-2, asked to play with his back to goal and link play. While his work rate never wavered, the role neutralized his greatest strength: running at defenders. He spent more time wrestling center-backs than attacking space.
3. The Nuno Deep Block (Sept 2025 – Present) Following Potter’s dismissal in September, Nuno Espírito Santo arrived with a mandate to stop the bleeding. The result has been a tactical 180-degree turn. West Ham have retreated into a deep, low-block defensive shape.
This shift has been the most damaging for Bowen’s output. Under Nuno, West Ham are averaging just 38% possession. Bowen is no longer part of a fluid attack; he is effectively a lone outlet, stationed 50 yards from the opposition goal, waiting for clearances that rarely turn into quality counter-attacks. He isn’t just playing a different role; he is playing a different sport compared to twelve months ago.
The “whiplash” from Potter’s slow possession to Nuno’s rapid transition has left the squad confused and disjointed. And standing in the middle of that confusion, wearing the armband, is Bowen—trying to score goals for a team that has forgotten how to create them.
“Bowen hasn’t lost his spark—he’s just the only light left on in the house.”
The Verdict: A Crown or A Cage?
As we approach the January window, West Ham find themselves in a precarious position. Jarrod Bowen is contracted until 2030—a deal signed in happier times that was supposed to secure his legacy as a one-club legend. But in the current climate, that contract looks less like security and more like a cage.
The rumors are already circling. With Liverpool reportedly eyeing a long-term successor to their own aging attack, and Tottenham monitoring the situation, Bowen faces a career-defining choice. At 28 years old, he is in his prime. He is a regular in Thomas Tuchel’s England squads, but for how long can he justify that spot while fighting relegation in a team that barely creates a chance per game?
The contrast with his teammates is stark. While others around him—notably the mercurial Lucas Paquetá—have lost their discipline in the heat of the battle, Bowen has kept his head down and his work rate up. He has been the model professional in an unprofessional season.
But loyalty has its limits. If Nuno Espírito Santo cannot find a way to reconnect the captain with the penalty box, West Ham won’t just be risking relegation; they will be risking the departure of their only consistent performer.
Jarrod Bowen has proven he is willing to carry the weight of the crown. The question now is whether West Ham can build a kingdom worth ruling, or if their captain will be forced to abdicate to save his own career.
He is still the King of East London—but for how much longer can he rule over a ruin?
